New directions for housing research due to climate change in New Zealand

Research concerned with energy and housing in NZ has focussed on the costs-effectiveness of maintaining warmth. Studies have concentrated on heat loss from houses and the efficiency of heating systems. One of the consequences of this has been Government subsidies for insulation and heat pump installations to reduce energy consumption in winter months. This has led to a significant growth in the heat pump market. Research is indicating that these devices are not significantly decreasing the demand for electricity in the winter. Of greater concern is that there is an increase in demand for electricity for cooling purposes which introduces a new and significant electrical load in the summer. This paper will outline the research currently being undertaken on the long-term impact of both climate change and energy depletion and the consequences for Building Code standards and ‘sustainability’ rating tools for housing. In New Zealand there has been a general shift in peak electrical demand from winter towards summer which has increased the risk of inadequate supplies in summer months. Climate change will not only alter the seasonal demand for electricity it will also impact on seasonal supply. About 50% of the water used for hydro electricity generation comes from glacial melt-water during the summer. The glaciers are now retreating due to climate change and it has been estimated that most glaciers will have melted by about 2040. NZ will not only experience ‘peak oil’ and ‘peak gas’ but also ‘peak hydro’. This will significantly increase the cost of electricity and the risk of interrupted supplies. The paper concludes that consideration should be given to subsidising long-lasting improvements to the fabric of houses rather than subsidising short-lived equipment such as heat pumps. Rating tools for the ‘sustainability’ of new and refurbished housing should also address this problem and actively discourage equipment that results, not only in increased electricity consumption, but also does not allow the human body the ability to adapt over time to the predicted increased average temperatures in New Zealand